Nobody likes a Republican

A great line in this Times Week in Review piece on whether we are at the beginning of a liberal resurgence: "Oh, snap. Liberal optimism, thy name is caution and caveat."

It's a good article. He doesn't put it in exactly these words, but I think Liebovich's fairly sound point is that this country is not swinging left, it's just that everything on the right is falling apart. Republicans were fundamentally a coalition of a pro-business, anti-regulation, anti-tax contingent, a socially conservative contingent, and a crazy militaristic one, all held together by unquestioned partisanship. No part of that coalition remains electorally appealing. One at a time:

The big business wing of the Republican party has never been very popular, they just have an awful lot of money and influence. Under Bush they have pushed the public as far as they could, and I don't honestly see them doing anything to seriously shift the economy rightward for a long time. They won't eliminate the estate tax, they won't privatize Social Security, the minimum wage will be raised very soon, we will see climate change legislation, and we might even see universal health care. On the other hand, they will still prove a powerful force in blocking progressive legislation, and I don't see the U.S. turning into France anytime soon.

The social conservatives pissed everyone off by trying to force feed a very-brain dead Terry Schiavo with a tube; all for baby Jesus. The gay marriage campaigns were very effective in 2004, but their issues and candidates just don't have the power that they did, especially in the context of the war and economic worries. But Democrats aren't going to be stupid enough to play up social issues, so I don't think we'll see any real leftward movement, at least at the federal level.

The militaristic wing of the Republican party was awfully popular after 9/11, but now everyone hates them. 13% of Americans support the surge of troops into Iraq. Rudy Giuliani thinks that having been relatively close to 9/11 when it happened makes him an electable presidential candidate, but the republicans beat the 9/11 horse to death for two election cycles, and as we saw in 2006, the unpopular war far overshadows it. But I don't know if everyone hating the Republicans really makes room for a lefty foreign policy consensus to emerge. This country still operates on a basically Cold War mentality that we need to maintain our hegemonic position at any cost, and that we have to constantly, constantly spend more money on the military. I don't see any reason to think the war in Iraq has discredited either of these ideas.

On top of all this, there was the gross incompetence after hurricane Katrina, Mark Foley, Tom Delay and Jack Abramoff. In 2006, Americans had the choice of a corrupt, incompetent, warmongering, ultra-right wing party, or an incredibly strong field of Democrats. Now, if Democrats can unify around and articulate some new vision for the future of the country this could probably be an historic opportunity to reassert themselves as a long-term majority party. But, failing that, I certainly don't see the Republicans pulling themselves together in a serious way by 2008, especially under the shadow of Iraq.